India and Pakistan in conflict: nuclear tension, religious rivalry and global impact by Glauco Winkel
What’s behind the recent escalation between Indians and Pakistanis? Recently, the world has witnessed a new escalation of tension between India and Pakistan, which are two countries with a long history of conflict.
On April 25, a deadly attack in Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir resulted in the death of 26 civilians – the deadliest attack since 2019. The Resistance Front (TRF), considered an extension of the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) group, a radical organization that allegedly receives support from Pakistan, claimed responsibility for the attack (Miller, 2025). In response, India launched Operation Sindoor with attacks on Pakistani territory, revoked Article 370 of its constitution, granted special autonomy to the Kashmir region, and suspended the bilateral water-sharing agreement with Pakistan. The conflict is still ongoing, increasing international fears, especially given that these are regional powers with nuclear weapons. Among the main risks of the conflict are the intensification of tensions between the two countries with nuclear capability, the religious dimension of the clash – involving Hindus and Islamists – and the potential economic impacts on the two economies with strategic influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
The tension between India and Pakistan occurs in a context in which both countries have nuclear capabilities. India became a nuclear power in 1974 and Pakistan in 1998. The Indians have 164 nuclear warheads capable of being launched by land, air and sea, and officially adopt a “no first use” policy, although this was re-evaluated in 2019, raising doubts about its maintenance. Pakistan, for its part, has approximately 170 nuclear warheads with an emphasis on tactical nuclear weapons, as a way of compensating for India’s conventional superiority. Pakistani warheads are stored separately from missiles and are assembled only in the case of imminent use. The country has not officially declared its adherence to the “no first use” policy. Estimates indicate that even limited nuclear exchange could cause up to 20 million deaths in a week (Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, 2025). Despite this, experts stress that nuclear deterrence is no substitute for diplomacy and expect discreet diplomatic channels, even in the face of more aggressive public rhetoric.
The conflict also has a strong religious component, marked by a historical rivalry between Hindus and Muslims. The partition of the Indian subcontinent in 1947 was based on religious criteria: areas with a Hindu majority formed India, while those with a Muslim majority gave rise to Pakistan. The Kashmir region, the central focus of the dispute, has a Muslim majority but was incorporated into India after the decision of its ruler, a Hindu maharaja, to join the Indian Union – a fact that triggered a prolonged dispute of both territorial and religious nature. The separatist movements in the region are largely motivated by the feeling of marginalization of the Muslim population under the control of the Indian government and are echoed by extremist groups such as the Resistance Front (TRF) and the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) (Council on Foreign Relations, 2025). Furthermore, since the election of Narendra Modi in 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has adopted an increasingly rigid stance towards Kashmir, promoting actions that, according to critics, contribute to the association between Islam and extremism (Aswani, 2025).
Furthermore, the economic impact of a conflict between India and Pakistan – two economies with strategic influence in the Indo-Pacific–would be catastrophic, not only for the countries directly involved but also for regional and global stability. India, whose economy is more robust, would face daily losses estimated at 670 million dollars as a result of military operations, added to economic damage that could reach up to 17.8 million dollars in just four weeks of war, representing a contraction of around 20% of its GDP in that period. Pakistan would probably suffer even more severe consequences, with risks of hyperinflation, shortages of essential goods, and the collapse of weakened productive sectors. In addition, both countries would experience capital flights, currency devaluation, and accelerating inflation, which are factors aggravated by high fuel and import prices (Sheikh, 2025). Furthermore, the conflict could disrupt strategic supply chains in the Indo-Pacific region, affecting trading partners and weakening international investment flows in one of the world’s most economically dynamic regions.
Against this backdrop, it is clear that the escalation of confrontation between India and Pakistan represents a multifaceted threat with alarming consequences. First, the risk of a clash between the two nuclear powers cannot be underestimated, as the mere possibility of using atomic weapons implies irreversible economic, humanitarian, and environmental consequences. Second, the religious background of the conflict – marked by decades of rivalry between Hindu and Muslim communities – contributes to internal radicalizations and fuels sectarian discourse in both India and Pakistan. Finally, the potential economic effects of this clash go beyond national borders, shaking the stability of international markets, interrupting production chains, and jeopardizing the growth of one of the most strategic regions of the planet. Faced with this scenario, it is essential that businesspeople monitor the situation closely, diversify their investments, and strengthen their supply chain. At the same time, regional and global diplomatic efforts are essential to prevent conflicts from escalating and to ensure a stable business environment.
References
Aswani, Tarushi. “Despite Modi’s Claims of Peace, Kashmir Burns”. The Diplomat, April 25, 2025. https://thediplomat.com/2025/04/despite-modis-claims-of-peace-kashmir-burns/.
Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. “India and Pakistan”. Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, 2025. https://armscontrolcenter.org/countries/india-and-pakistan/.
Center for Preventive Action. “Conflict Between India and Pakistan”. Council on Foreign Relations, April 12, 2025. https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan.
Miller, Manjari Chatterjee. “The Latest Attack in Kashmir Escalates India-Pakistan Tensions”. Council on Foreign Relations, April 25, 2025. https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/latest-attack-kashmir-escalates-india-pakistan-tensions.
Sheikh, Ali Tauqeer. “The costs of conflict”. Dawn, May 2, 2025. https://www.dawn.com/news/1907921.
* Glauco Winkel is a researcher on China and Southeast Asia at the Laboratory of Geopolitics, International Relations and Anti-Systemic Movements (LabGRIMA) and an associate researcher at the Center for Studies in Geopolitics and International Relations (CENEGRI).