Modi and Trump: Challenges and Opportunities for Strengthening Indo-US Relations by Glauco Winkel
India and the United States met on February 13 in Washington, where Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump discussed military and economic cooperation between the countries.
The US is seeking to strengthen military cooperation with New Delhi by expanding the securitization of the Indo-Pacific, while India is looking for more balanced trade agreements and attention to the migration agenda, especially with regard to deportations.
During the Biden administration, ties between the countries have grown closer, with India playing a leading role in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), which also involves Japan and Australia, two other countries in the Indo-Pacific region. In his recent meeting with Modi, the US president reaffirmed the country’s commitment to selling military equipment and carrying out joint exercises, such as the Tiger Triumph exercise, which involves all the countries’ armed forces and took place for the first time in 2019. This collaboration seeks to ensure military interoperability (the ability of armed forces from different countries to operate together efficiently) and expand the partnership in this sector between nations.
Despite growing bilateral cooperation, challenges continue to arise in trade relationships. New Delhi is seeking broader agreements, while the US accuses India of imposing high tariffs on American products, thus hindering trade. Trump has promised to impose tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imports, in addition to applying even higher tariffs to a select group of countries, including India. If he fulfills this promise, it is possible that the Asian country will respond with retaliatory tariffs. This move could be interpreted as a retaliatory trade policy against Indian protectionism or as a bluff to force negotiations more favorable to the United States, Trump’s traditional foreign policy strategy.
Another important point is that, in 2022, the US recorded a trade deficit with India of over 45 billion dollars (Council on Foreign Relations, 2025). For Trump, this deficit is representative of the Indian high trade barriers, leading him to label the country the “tariff king”. In fact, Modi used high tariffs as a strategy to protect domestic industries, attract foreign investment, and promote his “Make in India” policy. In addition, the presence of the Asian nation in BRICS+ raises concerns for Modi, especially in the face of Trump’s threats to retaliate against the group of developing countries. Therefore, to reach a “comprehensive and reciprocal” agreement, both countries will have to give in on certain aspects.
Immigration is a sensitive issue for India, with approximately five million Indians living in the United States, of which approximately 725,000 are in an irregular situation. New Delhi has already committed to repatriating 20,000 of its citizens (CSIS, 2025). However, the possible restriction of the H-1B visa, which is widely used by the country’s nationals, is causing concern among the community. On the other hand, the Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector has emerged as a promising alternative, allowing the Indian president to argue in favor of the presence of his citizens in the country by highlighting his expertise to boost joint programs between Indian and American universities.
In conclusion, bilateral relations between India and the United States are at a critical point, marked by growing military cooperation, trade challenges, and sensitive migration issues. The ability of both countries to deal with these complexities will be key to continued cooperation, as well as to influencing power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific and 21st century world order. The Asian country has the potential to play a crucial role in shaping the new international geopolitical order, especially given the growing competitiveness between the United States and China. The great challenge for the Indians will be to reconcile their interests in the dynamics of QUAD and BRICS+, balancing security issues with trade and migration imperatives. Thus, this task presents itself as a challenging and thought-provoking topic for future analysis that requires an in-depth understanding of the geopolitical and economic priorities of both countries.
References
Hadda, Katherine. “How Trump 2.0 Immigration Policies Could Strain Modi’s U.S. Strategy”. CSIS, February 10, 2025. https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-trump-20-immigration-policies-could-strain-modis-us-strategy.
Juster, Kenneth and Linscott, Mark. “It’s Time for a U.S.-India Trade Deal”. Council on Foreign Relations, January 31, 2025. https://www.cfr.org/article/its-time-us-india-trade-deal.
Rossow, Richard M. “U.S.-India Summit: A Productive Trip and a Busy Year Ahead”. CSIS, February 14, 2025. https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-india-summit-productive-trip-and-busy-year-ahead.